Arkansas GOP Executive Director Chase Duggar told a Sebastian County crowd Saturday night (Aug 21) that every Republican in a contested Arkansas legislative race is polling ahead of the Democratic challenger.

“It’s likely we’ll go back (to the 2011 General Assembly) with more Republicans than ever before,” Duggar said in the first public announcement by the party of its internal polling results. “I think that’s the first time we’ve been in that shape.”

Some political watchers have said the Republicans could have 40 seats in the 100-seat Arkansas House of Representatives.

Locally, Bruce Holland of Greenwood has a 14-point lead over Democratic challenger John Paul Wells of Paris for the State Senate District 13, Duggar said. He said Gary Stubblefield “has a good lead” over Rep. Steve Breedlove for the House District 67 race.

It’s not just the legislative races in which Republicans are polling strong.

Rep. Mark Martin of Prairie Grove says polling shows him from 4- to 10-points ahead of Democratic challenger Pat O’Brien in the Secretary of State race.

Mark Darr, the GOP candidate for Lt. Gov., told The City Wire his internal polling shows him with a 12-point lead over Sen. Shane Broadway, the Democrat candidate.

“But I’ll tell you that we’re running like we’re 20 points behind,” Darr said Tuesday night.

The running-behind mentality was a strategy recommended by Rogers Mayor Steve Womack, the GOP candidate in the 3rd Congressional District race. Womack, heavily favored against Democratic challenger David Whitaker of Fayetteville, urged the about 175 gathered in downtown Fort Smith to “avoid complacency” when the polls show a Republican edge.

“To use a track term, I urge you to run through the tape, to run hard through the finish line. ... and that finish line is 7:30, November 2,” Womack told the crowd.

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The first signs of strength on the Republican side in a state that historically has been safe for Democrats came with a mid-July Talk Business Poll showing Gov. Mike Beebe with a 49.5 to 40.5 lead over Republican challenger Jim Keet. The less than 10-point lead was a surprise considering Beebe’s unprecedented popularity among conservatives in both parties.

The numbers are also good for the Republican candidates in the top federal race. U.S. Rep. John Boozman, R-Rogers, has a 65-27 lead over incumbent U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas’ U.S. Senate race according to a Rasmussen poll released Aug. 20.

Roby Brock, a political analyst/reporter at TalkBusiness.net, former state Senate candidate and former head of the Arkansas Election Commission, said the polling data and anecdotal evidence indicates Arkansas is poised for “an historic fall” election cycle.

“There is definitely a mood in the electorate to vote Republicans into office across the state and at all levels. The GOP base has greater support for its candidates than the Democrats have for theirs, and independent voters are identifying with Republican candidates over Democrats by about a 3 to 1 margin,” Brock explained.

Brock said the conventional wisdom is that all politics is local, but this cycle may indicate that “all local politics are national” — a reference to what Brock says is a “great dissatisfaction” among voters with national Democrats on health care reform and other issues.

“From what we've polled and from what I'm hearing — to use a sports analogy — Republicans in Arkansas are entering the fourth quarter with a two-score lead. Can Democrats come back and win? Sure. But its going to take some high-octane offense and a couple of good bounces of the ball to make it happen,” Brock said.